游需求分析婶予促进我目各地区的经济发展和文化交流都有着重要的意叉。由于旅游行业的。小样本，膏信息，不确定”性，

旅游市场可以看做是一个巨大的灰色系统。皋文竹对旅游需求同题进行了详细的研完，提出了基于灰色表镜理论的多元数学预测模型GM

(1，N)．合理分析诸多因素对旅游需求的综合影响，可以很好的解决此奏问题。同时。以北京地区旅游需求发展为倒，根据北京市旅游局平

的历年旅游统计数据，确定影响游客人数的因素并对其合理量化，应用GM(1，N)模型对最地的旅游需求进行预潮．井通过残盖检验，后戎

差检验手方法对谊模型进行分析．得到的攮测结晨比较准磅，未模型应用范田广泛，可以进行推广使用。-Travel demand analysis aunt I promote my head the region s economic development and cultural exchange has an important meaning fork. As the tourism industry. Small sample, paste the information, uncertain "sex,

Tourism market can be seen as a huge gray system. Gao asparagus tourism demand with the title for a detailed study finished, put forward the theory based on gray table mirror multivariate mathematical prediction model GM

(1, N). Rational analysis of factors combined effects of tourism demand, can solve this problem outs. Simultaneously. Development of regional tourism demand in Beijing is an inverted, according to the Beijing Municipal Tourism Bureau level

Calendar year tourism statistics to determine the factors that affect the number of visitors and their reasonably quantified, the application of GM (1, N) model of the tourism demand for the most pre-cuts. Well residue cover through test after Rong

Poor test methods friendship hand model for analysis. Nang get more accurat