首先建立了风力发电和光伏发电的天气模型，提出了衡量供电可靠性的失负荷概率LOLP、衡量清洁能源浪费的失能量概率LOEP 和系统成本等指标，并采用蒙特卡罗仿真进行计算.-First set up the model of wind power and photovoltaic power, put forward the measure of the loss of load probability of power supply reliability LOLP LOEP, measure the energy loss of clean energy waste of probability and system cost indicators, and using monte carlo simulation to calculate.